Abstract
Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20-year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has a 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate change impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information for the policy- and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.
Highlights
As stated in the global risks report of the World Economic Forum (WEF), extreme weather events and climate action failure have been identified as the two top high-risks, which have severely impacted on livelihoods, environment, and society (World Economic Forum 2021)
The main purpose of this study is to explore responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin (BRB) in Vietnam
The SWAT model has not always captured well the peak of the flows, which might be caused by the simplification of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Stream Drought Index (SDI) ! þ2.0 1.5 SPI, SDI, 2.0 1.0 SPI, SDI, 1.5 À1.0 SPI, SDI, 1.0 À1.5 SPI, SDI, À1.0 À2.0 SPI, SDI, À1.5 SPI, SDI À2.0
Summary
As stated in the global risks report of the World Economic Forum (WEF), extreme weather events (e.g. droughts and floods) and climate action failure have been identified as the two top high-risks, which have severely impacted on livelihoods, environment, and society (World Economic Forum 2021). Drought is defined as a prolonged period of abnormally dry weather that causes serious hydrological imbalance (IPCC 2013). Four basic parameters are used to characterize a drought, as follows: (i) duration refers to the number of drought months of an event; (ii) frequency is the number of drought months over a specified time period; (iii) intensity refers to the degree of a drought event; and (iv) severity is the ratio of the intensity to the duration (Sam et al 2019)
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