Impact of climate change on future precipitation amounts, seasonal distribution, and streamflow in the Omo-Gibe basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study projected the impact of climate change on the amount of precipitation, seasonal distribution, and streamflow of the Omo-gibe basin, Ethiopia. Projections of climate change using the results of high-resolution multimodal ensembles from fifteen regional climate models (RCMs) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Reduction Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa were statistically downscaled and bias-adjusted using a quantile mapping approach. Precipitation and temperature were projected under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 emission scenarios. Climate and streamflow projections from a mean ensemble of RCMs in the near future (2025–2050), medium future (2051–2075), and far future (2076–2100) were compared to the reference (1989–2019). Mann-Kendall (MK) trend testing was used to determine if a change is statistically significant and to detect trends in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used to project the impact of climate change on the streamflow. According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the emission scenarios predicted significant positive (rising) temperature, but significant negative (decreasing) precipitation and streamflow. The average temperature projected increases range from 2.40-3.34 °C under the RCP 4.5 emission scenarios and 2.6–4.54 °C under the RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Annual average precipitation projected decreases range between 10.77-13.11% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario, while the RCP 8.5 emission scenarios decrease range between 11.10-13.86% in the rainy summer season (June–August) and the irregular rain season (March–May). Projected annual average streamflow decrease range between 7.08-10.99% under the RCP 4.5 emission scenarios and 10.98–12.88% under the RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Results on projected temperature increases and reductions in precipitation and streamflow will help to develop effective adaptation measures to reduce the ongoing impacts of climate change and draw up long-term water resource management plans in the river basin. Both the results and the multidisciplinary approach will be vital to irrigation and hydropower project planners.