Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets – A review of models and forecasts

Abstract

Climate change has serious implications for the electricity sector, especially for the future of electricity demand and supply. Understanding the climate change phenomenon and its impact on electric power system is of increasing importance to policymakers across the world. An extensive literature review on the impact of climate change on the electricity sector is the first step in understanding and building impact assessment model for the electric power sector. This review highlights the research areas where the knowledge frontier has advanced significantly like: temperature-sensitive demand estimation, plant-level effects of cooling water/ambient air temperature increase; supply vulnerabilities due to decreased water availability for power generation; localized impact of climate variations on wind resources etc. The research areas where the impacts are still unclear includes: system-wide impact on renewable and thermal power generation; economic modeling of extreme events; vulnerabilities of transmission and coastal energy infrastructure to extreme events; long-term combined modeling at a state or regional level; the effects of climate, policy and impact uncertainties on modeling outcomes etc. It is hoped that the outcome of this research review could inform the design of future electricity markets and system models.