Abstract
Climate change will inevitably affect agriculture. Simulations of the effects of climate change on the agronomic performance (plant height, biomass dry weight, number of spikes, grain weight, harvest index, and 1000-kernel weight) of nine durum wheat cultivars were performed to identify the genotypes that will have a greater yield potential over the next 50 years. Plants were grown in two Fitotron® CGR crop growth chambers: “room 2020” designed to reproduce the current climatic conditions (control) and “room 2070”, designed to simulate the expected climate for the year 2070 in the RCP8.5 scenario (800 ppm, elevated [CO2], and a temperature increase of 2.5 °C). The plant life cycle was clearly shorter in “room 2070” due to the physiological strategy of the plant to escape the high summer temperatures through early ripening of the kernels. Again, in “room 2070”, the modern cultivars Rusticano, San Carlo, and Simeto and the old cultivar Cappelli increased the grain yield. Surprisingly, Cappelli seemed to be particularly suitable for cultivation in an environment rich in atmospheric CO2 and under high temperature stress, since it produced a grain yield that was approximately three times higher than the other varieties.
Highlights
The emission of harmful gases such as CO2 is the main cause of the greenhouse effect and warmer global temperatures [1]
Our study aims to provide an update of the future weather condition effects on durum wheat yield, from a realistic experiment achieved using Fitotron® CGR crop growth chambers, which are the most complex form of a controlled-environment facility
The most prominent result of this experiment was the different length of life cycle between
Summary
The emission of harmful gases such as CO2 is the main cause of the greenhouse effect and warmer global temperatures [1]. Climate predictions are based on the relationships between human choices, pollution, temperature change, etc. These networks are referred to as representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The RCPs are categorized by the changes in radiative forcing, the disparity between the solar radiation entering the climate system, and the infrared (longwave) radiation leaving it, caused by greenhouse gases and other external drivers by the end of the 21st century. RCP2.6 is a low emission pathway with a change in radiative forcing of roughly 2.6 W/m2. RCP4.5 and RCP6 represent intermediate emission pathways, and RCP8.5 represents a pathway with constant growth in emissions from greenhouse gases (GHGs), leading to a radiative forcing of roughly 8.5 W/m2 by the end of the century [3]
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