Abstract
Impact of climate change on development phases of rice is one of the major concern issues due to yield reduction. In the present study, development phases of winter rice (boro rice) of BR3 and BR14 varieties for the years 2008, 2030, 2050 and 2070 have been simulated for 12 major rice growing Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Bangladesh using DSSAT model. Available data on soil and hydrologic characteristics of these locations, and typical crop management practices for boro rice were used. The weather data required for the model were generated for the selected years and for the selected locations using the regional climate model PRECIS. Compared to 2008, the model predicted average reductions in development phases in days of BR3 variety for the selected 12 locations were 1 in Emergence (E) to End Juvenile (EJ) phase, 1 in Panicle Inition (PI) to End Leaf Growth (ELG) and 1 in Grain Filling Phase (GFP) phase during 2030; 4 in E to EJ, 1 in EJ to PI, 3 in PI to ELG and 2 GFP phase for the year 2050 and 7 in E to EJ, 3 in EJ to PI, 5 in PI to ELG and 3 GFP in 2070. Similar results were also found for BR14 variety for the selected locations in Bangladesh. Therefore, developing new rice varieties with considering climatic adaptive, proper growing period should be maintained.
Highlights
Rice production is inherently sensitive due to variability of climatic parameters in Bangladesh
Even though BR3 and BR14 rice varieties are not widely used currently, the model simulations carried out in this study provide useful insight into the possible effects of climate change on development phases of boro rice
The growth of development phases and yield of rice are directly related to the rate of photosynthesis and phenology and their response to temperature, solar radiation and rainfall
Summary
Rice production is inherently sensitive due to variability of climatic parameters in Bangladesh. According to this issue a number of simulation studies were carried out to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on rice yield in Bangladesh using the CERES-Rice model (e.g., Basak 2009; Basak et al 2009; Mahmood et al 2003; Mahmood 1998; Karim et al 1996). These studies mainly focused on the effects of temperature, rainfall pattern and atmospheric CO2 concentration on rice yield. The development phases of two boro varieties (BR3 and BR14) have been simulated in the present study for the years 2008, 2030, 2050 and 2070, using the DSSAT modeling system
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