Abstract
Among the numerous problems that are facing cotton farmers, climate change is one of the most important still out of their control. Adaptation appears to be one of the best alternatives. The objective of this research is to assess the impact of climate change on cotton production in the Savannah region of Togo. The study was conducted with 172 cotton farmers sampled randomly in many stages in order to determine the impact of climate change on cotton production. The impact assessment of climate change on cotton production was carried out using ATE (Average Treatment Effect) and ATET (Average Treatment Effect on the Treated) models introduced by Rubin in 1974. The results show that climate change has a significant negative impact at 1% level on cotton production observed with an average decrease per farmer of 2330 kg, on the yield efficiency with an average decrease of 515 kg/ha and on the income level with an average decrease of US $745 per farmer. Climate change reduces the level of soil fertility, favours pest resistance and leads to an increase in consumption of cotton production inputs per unit of area. The study also reveals a low level of adaptation of cotton farmers to climate change. The expansion of cultivated areas remains the main reaction of cotton farmers to climate’s negative effects. Raising producers’ awareness on the reality of climate change and adopting adaptation techniques and strategies would greatly improve cotton farmers’ adaptive capacity and positively affect cotton production in Savannah region, and Togo in general.
Highlights
In Togo, like in many West African countries, agriculture remains the main driving force for economic and social development
The results show that climate change has a significant negative impact at 1% level on cotton production observed with an average decrease per farmer of 2330 kg, on the yield efficiency with an average decrease of 515 kg/ha and on the income level with an average decrease of US $745 per farmer
From the results of the estimates, it is noted that the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is roughly equal to the Average Treatment Effect on the treated (ATET) because, climate change is an exogenous and random phenomenon over which cotton farmers have no control
Summary
In Togo, like in many West African countries, agriculture remains the main driving force for economic and social development. Togolese agriculture is a major issue in terms of economic weight, employment, source of income and food security [1]. While food crops are contributing 68.5% to the formation of the Gross Domestic Agricultural Product (GDAP), annuity products (cotton, coffee and cocoa) contribute 9% to the GDAP [2]. The cotton sector most remains an engine of growth as well as in rural areas and in the national economy. It is the most structured agricultural sub-sector which guarantees producers an annual income. The optimization of agricultural production in general and cotton production in particular necessarily requires good productivity and good level of land yield
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