Abstract
AbstractIn this study, a hydrodynamic model of water quality (CE‐QUAL‐W2) coupled with a hydrological model (SWAT) with emission scenarios predicted by general circulation models in the future were applied to examine the impact of climate change on the thermal structure of a reservoir. According to the results, the mean annual air temperature will increase from 1.47 to 1.80°C (B1) and from 2.00 to 2.11°C (A2). The average of the monthly precipitation total will also increase from 2.95 to 3.17 mm (A2) and from 5.32 to 9.67 mm (B1) in the future. The results of the hydrological model indicate river flow reduction (A2 scenario), no variation (ECHAM5‐OM B1) and increase (HadCM3 B1) in the future. Also, the occurrence time of maximum and minimum monthly discharges are projected to change. To determine the importance of upstream watershed hydrology on thermal structure modelling, the simulation was carried out twice, once with and then without the SWAT model. By comparing the results, it was concluded that by applying the coupled model, the climate change impact on upstream hydrology characteristics and temperature effect both in the surface and bottom layers, altered duration of the stratification cycle and its onset and termination, could be simulated successfully. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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