Impact of Climate Change in Rajshahi City Based on Marksim Weather Generator, Temperature Projections

Abstract

Climate change is an increasingly important issue affecting natural resources. Rising temperatures, reductions in snow cover, and variability in precipitation depths and intensities are altering the accepted normal approaches for predicting runoff, soil erosion, and chemical losses from upland areas and watersheds. It is, therefore, essential to comprehend the future possible scenario of climate change in terms of global warming. Previous standards for natural resources planning may no longer apply in the near future, if local weather varies greatly from long-term historical records. General Circulation Models (GCMs) operate at large scales to estimate changes in atmospheric conditions (temperatures, wind speeds, precipitation, etc.) due to projected increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. The project described in this paper utilized the MarkSim DSSAT Weather Generator, Google Earth and a Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet. In this study, future impact of climate change on temperature of Rajshahi city in the year of 2030, 2050, and 2080 have been assessed based on four RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and ensemble 17 GCM models of a new MarkSim web version for IPCC AR5 data (CMIP5). As a result of multi-model combinations (RCPs and GCM projections) of future average temperature changes in 2030, 2050, and 2080 with respect to present climate condition, it has been observed that the winter months in Rajshahi city might become warmer in future at a faster rate than other months, and the trend of temperature increase might continue on a monthly basis in future.