Abstract
Changes in land use patterns and increased occurrence of extreme rainfall events and sea level rise are now serious concerns for urban coastal flooding. Thane city faces frequent flooding problem every monsoon and now its frequency and inundation area are increasing. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a flood hazard map taking into account the combined effect of land use change and climate change. In this study, the effects of land use land cover (LULC) changes over the past 25 years (1995-2020) and for next 30 years were examined. The obtained result indicates that since 1995 the built-up area has increased by 27.47% in past 25 years, and it will further increase up to 55.99 % for next 30 years. It means that Thane city is rapidly urbanizing. The increasing built-up area and increasing rainfall intensity events and sea level rises, increases the peak runoff. The obtained result in present study indicates that peak runoff in past 25 years due to land use changes increased by 11.5% and it will further increase up to 31.8 % for next 30 years including climate change effect. This means that Thane city has faced water logging problem in the past and will face water logging problem in the future. In the present study, Storm CAD software was used for hydraulic analysis of major drains while ArcGIS software was used for land use change analysis, flood prone area development and flood hazard mapping. The result of this analysis indicates that inundation area in past 25 years increased to 9.15% and it will further increase up to 14.03 % for next 30 years. This means that Thane city currently facing waterlogging problem in 6.211 km2 and will face waterlogging problem up to 9.604 km2 in future. It is expected that the developed flood hazard map may assist decision-makers or/to relevant authorities, particularly for storm water planning and water-related concerns to minimize the number of lives and property lost due to repetitive flood disasters in Thane city.
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