IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES ONTHE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF XINJIANG AKSU OASIS (CHINA)

Abstract

Aim of the study: To show that the Oasis in Xinjiang of China is facing serious sustainable development challenges due to the climate change and human activities, especially for the drought stress. Material and methods: Linear trend method, also known as linear trend forecasting method and linear fitting, is the most studied and popular quantitative forecasting method so far. Based on the time series data during the observation period, it is assumed that the predicted variables have a linear function relationship with time, and is fitted into a straight line, so that the straight line can reflect the changing trend of the variables themselves, namely, a linear regression model. Results and conclusions: From 1961 to 2016, Aksu Oasis climate in general showed a "warm and wet" trend. From 1991 to 2016, the oasis area continued to expand, and the desert area showed a decreasing trend, and land use changed significantly. The regional water resources have obviously changed, and the average groundwater depth in the oasis area was between 3.55 and 4.35 meters, showing an increasing trend, while the groundwater level was decreasing. Water resources shortage is the most fundamental reason to restrict the expansion of oasis scale. The suitable oasis scale of Aksu Oasis in 1991, 2001 and 2016 is 12611.30, 15949.95 and 16631.59 km2, respectively, but the actual area of the oasis in the three periods is larger.