Impact of climate and host availability on future distribution of Colorado potato beetle

Cong Wang,David Hawthorne,Zhihong Li,Shuifang Zhu,Yujia Qin,Xubin Pan

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-04607-7

Abstract

Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB) is a devastating invasive pest of potato both in its native North America and now across Eurasia. It also damages eggplant, tomato and feeds on several wild species in the Solanaceae, such as S. eleagnifolium and S. rostratum Dunal (SR). Since first categorized as a pest in 1864, CPB has spread rapidly across North America, Europe and Asia. In light of its invasiveness and economic importance, it is necessary to study how climate change and host availability may alter the distribution of the CPB. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models were used to anticipate global range expansion as influenced by environmental conditions, and by the possibility of cooperative invasion of CPB and its wild host SR. The results indicate that both CPB and SR can occupy warm areas of North America, South Africa, Europe, China, and Australia. Future climate conditions may promote CPB expansion into northern regions and SR into the circumpolar latitudes. The existing range and continued spread of SR may also assist the global expansion of CPB. Future management of this pest should consider the impacts of global climate change and host availability on its potential global distribution.

Highlights

The Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB), Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidate), is a devastating potato pest
For CPB, the first four principal components explained 93% of the total variance with the first component mainly attributed to precipitation during wet and cold seasons, the second attributed to temperature in cold and dry periods, the third to temperature in warm periods and the mean temperature of the warmest month, and the fourth to the seasonality of precipitation and the precipitation in the dry periods
For S. rostratum Dunal (SR), the first five principal components accounted for 94% of variation with the first component composed of seven variables related to temperature, the second attributed to the seasonality of precipitation and precipitation in the dry periods, the third to temperature in warm periods, the fourth to precipitation in the wet periods, and the fifth to temperature in the wet periods and precipitation in the cold periods

Summary

Introduction

The Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB), Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidate), is a devastating potato pest. CPB was first discovered in North America in 1811, feeding on Solanum rostratum Dunal (SR)[1] After it was first observed damaging potato crops in the 1850s, it rapidly spread, infesting potato fields across most of the United States and southern Canada by 18751. The distribution areas of crop host plants may be influenced by climate change, as observed for CPB and potato in Europe[13]. It is native to Mexico and the southwestern United States, but is found throughout North America, Europe, Asia and Australia[14, 15] In this case, the distribution of two different invasive species, a weed and an herbivore, can interact www.nature.com/scientificreports/. Because propagule pressure only had a positive effect when considered together with climate and host, and previous studies have indicated that CPB is quite sensitive to the climate, it is a good candidate for range expansion due to climate change[19, 20]

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