Impact of changes of horse movement regulations on the risks of equine infectious anemia: A risk assessment approach

Abstract

Equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) is a transboundary disease affecting a large number of equines worldwide. In this study, we assessed the transmission risk of EIAV in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Serum samples from 1010 animals from 341 farms were initially analyzed using agar gel immunodiffusion to detect viral antibodies, and no antibody-positive animals were found. A risk assessment stochastic model was applied to generate the expected number of potential infections per month and to estimate the time to new infections. Our results estimated 6.5 months as the interval for new infections in the worst-case scenario. Among the variables evaluated, the number of transported animals and the test sensitivity influenced the model the most. These results were then used to revisit the impact of EIAV control regulations, which triggered a change in the diagnostic testing required for animal movement, in which the validity of a negative test for EIAV was extended from 60 to 180 days. Finally, revisiting the annual average of infected farms before and after the new regulation, the number of infected farms increased pre-implementation, and then, the number of culled animals increased, which should impact future EIAV incidence in this region. Our results demonstrated the importance of constant reviews of disease control programs and provided quantitative-based knowledge for decision-makers in official veterinary services.