Abstract
The energy demand of buildings heavily depends on outdoor temperature. Current climate change projections suggest an increase in annual mean temperatures of up to 5.4°C for Switzerland until the end of the century. In this study, an existing bottom-up building stock model is coupled with the latest spatio-temporal climate change projections. This allows for simulating the heat demand for each Swiss building for three different climate change scenarios and three periods. It is found that while space heat demand can decrease up to 33% by the end of the century, the need for air conditioning can arise. Furthermore, the impact of climate change differs between regions in Switzerland.
Highlights
The demand for heating and cooling in buildings is responsible for a significant share of the worldwide total energy demand and of the global greenhouse gas emissions [1]
It can be seen that space heat demand decreases for all periods and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios
The RCP2.6 projection only has a reduction in space heat demand of -9.5% for the same period
Summary
The demand for heating and cooling in buildings is responsible for a significant share of the worldwide total energy demand and of the global greenhouse gas emissions [1]. While building heating and cooling loads depend mainly on thermo-physical properties (e.g. level of insulation) of a building, they are strongly influenced by outside temperature [2, 3]. This is important in the context of global warming and might substantially impact current building heating and cooling profiles. A deep understanding of the impact of climate change on the building stock is important for policymakers in order to prioritize and plan constructive and targeted environmental refurbishment strategies of building stocks that are tailored to specific regions. District heating networks depends heavily on the locally available heat demand
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