Impact of carbon pricing on mitigation potential in Chinese agriculture: A model-based multi-scenario analysis at provincial scale

Abstract

China's ‘dual carbon’ goals seek to achieve peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. China is one of the world's largest emitters of agricultural greenhouse gases. Although existing studies have evaluated GHG mitigation potential in Chinese agriculture, few built models by incorporating socioeconomic conditions, technology diffusion, and carbon pricing policies. This study developed a bottom-up Agricultural Technology Optimisation Model (ATOM) for GHG mitigation, which selected optimal mitigation measure portfolios by minimising costs based on inventories of agricultural GHG and mitigation measures. It was employed to quantify long-term mitigation potential in Chinese agriculture under a range of socioeconomic and carbon pricing scenarios. GHG emissions in Chinese agriculture totalled 720.3 MtCO2e in 2017. Assuming an SSP2 scenario, the maximum technical mitigation potential of the evaluated measures in 2060 will be 554.1 MtCO2e, with 78.2% contributed by mitigation measures for crop production. 38.9% of this potential is possibly achievable with negative cost mitigation measures, and carbon pricing can help achieve greater emission reductions. Chinese agriculture theoretically possesses significant mitigation potential, but the implementation of mitigation measures may be hindered by multiple obstacles. The government should adopt counterstrategies to ensure that the agricultural sector remains on track to meet China's carbon neutrality goal.