Impact of Canadian Economic Development on Northern Montana Highways

Abstract

Recent economic development in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan is generating changes in commercial traffic across border crossings into Montana and along associated north-south highway corridors. Most notably, oil and gas exploration, generation and refinement in Canada tend to lead to a wide mix of auto, truck, and pipeline activity across the Montana-Canada border. This report covers Phase I of a potential two-phase study where Phase I is an assessment of current and future economic conditions and an estimate of related commercial vehicle traffic growth with and without expanded port operations. Phase II, if warranted, would identify highway impacts of the future traffic and necessary improvements along the highway corridors leading to the ports. This research study focused on examining current and future economic conditions to estimate future commercial traffic growth at the border crossings and connecting north-south highways in Montana. In addition, the research assessed the impacts of expanding port of entry operating hours and estimates induced and re-distributed traffic volumes. Key elements of the study included: 1) literature review of regional economic and transportation studies, and similar border crossing analyses; 2) assessment of current traffic and infrastructure conditions, and border crossing policies and security; 3) evaluation of existing economic conditions and projections of future industry growth; and 4) forecasts of future traffic volumes at Montana border crossings and connecting highways. The research employed a risk analysis to account for future uncertainties in key driving factors and industry growth trends, thus producing a range of likely future traffic volumes by facility. The study findings indicate that historical border crossing traffic volumes vary significantly depending on factors such as oil prices, and the value of the Canadian dollar. Further, traffic volumes, other than at Sweet Grass, are relatively low and well-below capacity. The current economic recession and expected gradual recovery means flat to modest growth in the near-term. There is some potential for stronger long-term traffic growth due to anticipated expansion in the energy industries and the potential for expanded port operations.