Impact of Automated Driving Technology on Japanese Automobile Insurance Market

Abstract

Purpose: This study attempts to predict the scale of the Japanese automobile insurance market. The forecast is based on the understanding of safety technologies and historic market trends. Research design, data, and methodology: Automobile insurance, together with compulsory automobile liability insurance (CALI), holds more than 50% of the total premium in the Japanese non-life insurance industry. If automated driving prevails, automobile accidents would likely decrease rapidly. Even if fully automated driving does not occur in the near future, some of its elemental technologies, especially collision damage mitigation braking, will significantly reduce the incidence of automobile accidents, and thus the market for automobile insurance. Moreover, as the country’s population decreases, the number of automobiles owned and licenses issued will reduce. We made 20-year predictions of the automobile insurance market in Japan. The calculation is based on demographic data, penetration of safety devices, and their accident prevention effects on bodily injury and property damage. Data are gathered from Japanese governmental statistics, insurance statistics, and research institutes. Results: Our prediction indicates that in the medium-term, the Japanese automobile insurance market will remain stable, and the reduction in the frequency of accidents may proceed slowly and will be mostly offset by the increasing amount of claims per accident. Although we do not have a quantitative estimation for the long term, it may fall drastically after the onset of fully automated driving. Implications: The challenge for insurers in the medium term will be to adapt to the transitional period of declining automobile accidents. In the long term, the weight of lines will shift from automobile insurance to new types of insurance, and insurers will need to implement various structural changes to adapt to this change.