Impact of air pollution on mortality: geo-epidemiological study in French-speaking Africa

Abstract

Abstract According to the WHO, air pollution is responsible for 90% of deaths in Africa. However, few data on exposure to air pollution is available, and studies are rare, particularly in French-speaking Africa. This study aims to investigate the impact of air pollution on mortality in 13 French-speaking African countries (Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Madagascar, Mali, Morocco, Democratic Republic of Congo, Senegal, Tunisia). Using data from the IHME, annual concentrations of the PM2.5 pollutant from different cities were integrated into a spatial interpolation model (IDW) at the scale of each country. The interpolation was validated using cross-validation models. For each of the considered cardiorespiratory diseases (LRI, stroke, COPD, IHD), the attributable mortality fraction was estimated using literature data and population exposure calculated using demographic data from each country. Large variations in concentration between the 13 countries are observed, with concentrations ranging from 1.76µg/m3 in Morocco to 67.03µg/m3 in Benin. Concentrations are higher in West Africa than in Central or North Africa. In 2019, 291,417 deaths attributable to air pollution were recorded in the 13 countries: 19.7% for ischemic heart disease, 6.5% for lower respiratory infections, 3.6% for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 18.8% for stroke. Our model allowed us to obtain a spatial distribution and the number of deaths related to air pollution. However, the health impact of pollution could be improved by more systematic and comprehensive data collection through a system for monitoring concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Key messages • This study estimates the number of deaths attributable to air pollution in 13 French-speaking African countries using a spatial interpolation model. • This study highlights the need for more data on air pollution exposure in French-speaking Africa.