Abstract
On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We estimate that, 14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at »0.76 (95% CI 0.67–0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks.
Highlights
Giorgio Guzzetta,1 Flavia Riccardo,1 Valentina Marziano, Piero Poletti, Filippo Trentini, Antonino Bella, Xanthi Andrianou, Martina Del Manso, Massimo Fabiani, Stefania Bellino, Stefano Boros, Alberto Mateo Urdiales, Maria Fenicia Vescio, Andrea Piccioli, COVID-19 Working Group,2
On March 11, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
On February 21, 2020, the earliest known case of locally transmitted severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) infection was reported in Italy
Summary
14 days after lockdown, the net reproduction number had dropped below 1 and remained stable at ≈0.76 (95% CI 0.67–0.85) in all regions for >3 of the following weeks. The Study We measured SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility in terms of the basic (R0) and net (Rt) reproduction numbers. These quantities represent the mean number of secondary infections generated by 1 primary infector in a fully susceptible population (R0) and in the presence of control interventions and human behavioral adaptations (Rt). We considered the average value of Rt over the successive 3 weeks (March 26– April 15) These choices were suggested by the trend of the national Rt (Appendix)
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