Impact Factors for Immigration to Spain

Abstract

Background: Migration processes play an important role in the economic development of a country and form the human resources necessary for developing countries. Therefore, forming a favourable legislative framework for a certain category of migrants affects the attraction of the necessary human resources for the country. Motivation: Generally, the level of immigration has risen over the last 50 years, and around 3.6% of the total population in the world are immigrants. Identifying the influencing factors that motivate people to migrate is very important. This understanding informs well-designed immigration and effective solutions for foreign policy. Aim: To analyse and model the impact of the factors influencing the choice of the destination country, examining what attracts a person to a country or, on the contrary, why a country may not be chosen. Additionally, this paper seeks to forecast the dynamics of immigration in Spain for 2022-2024 under the impact of selected factors for analysis. Methods: To create a regression model using the R-Studio software based on a data set for the 2000-2021 years. The scientific hypothesis is that the following could have an influence on the level of immigration to Spain: inflation, level of employment and education, government spending on social protection, the share of the ICT sector in the GDP of the country, as well as the economic crisis in the USA for 2007, and legal factor such as the presence of open borders for the African population in 2019, a characteristic not shared by other European countries. The last two indicators, proven significant in attracting immigrants, were incorporated into the model as dummy variables. Results and Conclusions: The research proved a non-linear negative impact of a logarithm of spending on social protection expenditure and the third degree of inflation—conversely, a positive impact of the third degree of employment level. Additionally, the forecast of immigration in Spain under the impact of the above factors was discussed. The paper will be of interest to the government since migration is not only important in terms of the country's demographic structure but also has a direct impact on a country’s national economy. It can either strengthen or weaken the country’s economic development, making it significant to policymakers.