Abstract
RésuméLes transferts de fonds des migrants tunisiens constituent une source de devises non négligeable, Ils ont augmenté d'une manière rapide notamment la dernière décennie. Ils peuvent également engendrer le phénomène de syndrome hollandais. Le but de ce travail est d'étudier l'impact des transferts sur taux de change réel effectif. En estimant des relations de co‐intégration avec ruptures structurelles par l'intermédiaire de la méthode de Johansen et al. () et Saikkonen et Lütkepohl () et Saikkonen et al. (); nous avons trouvé qu'une augmentation de 1% de ratio des transferts de fonds sur PIB provoque une appréciation de taux de change réel d'équilibre de 0,39%. Ce qui confirme l'hypothèse de syndrome hollandais dans l'économie tunisienne.AbstractRemittances to Tunisia constitute a main foreign flow; they have increased rapidly particularly over the past decade. Remittances can induce the syndrome known as Dutch Disease. The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of remittances on the real effective exchange rate. By estimating cointegration relations with structural breaks through the method of Johansen et al. (); Saikkonen and Lütkepohl () and Saikkonen et al. (); we found that an increase in worker's remittances of 1 percentage point of GDP is associated with an appreciation of Tunisia's real effective exchange rate by 0.39 per cent. This result confirms the hypothesis of Dutch Disease in Tunisia.
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