Impact des politiques économiques en situation de rationnement de crédits : illustration à l'aide d'un MCEG appliqué au cas du Rwanda

Abstract

The transmission channel between monetary instruments and the supply side of the economy via credit financing of working capital needs has been theoretically shown to be a crucial link in the evaluation of the effects of stabilization policies in financially repressed economies. We consider that this credit link must be taken into account in the evaluation not only of monetary policies but also of any other non-monetary policies likely to modify the cost and/or the availability of credit. In addition, the influence of this link on the effects of policies would depend on the structure of the real and financial sectors. To verify these hypotheses, we construct a real and financial Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which is calibrated with the 1987 data of Rwanda. This model is composed of two versions of which only one introduces the use of bank credit by firms to finance their working capital needs. The comparison of the results obtained from simulations of alternative policies with these two versions allows us to assess the importance of the monerary transmission channel. Our results show that the sign and level of the effects of economic policies on real micro/macro variables do, in fact, differ between the two versions. We also obtain that the instruments of quantitative and selective credit control in force, the banks' behavior and the relative size of non-structured production units in all sectors determine the influence of that credit link on the results of economic policies.