Abstract
Korea has frequent flood damage due to localized torrential rain and typhoons as a result of climate change, which causes many casualties and property damage. In particular, much damage occurs due to urban inundation caused by stream flooding as a result of climate change. Thus, this study aims to analyze the effect of climate change on flood damage targeting the Wonjucheon basin, which is an urban stream flowing the city. For future rainfall data, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 8.5 climate change scenario data was used, statistical detailed using SDQDM (Spatial Disaggregation with Quantile Delta Mapping) techniques, and daily data was downscaled using Copula model. In general, the flood damage rate is calculated by using the area ratio according to the land use in the administrative district, but in this study, the flood damage rate is calculated using the flood damage rate proposed in the multi-dimensional flood damage analysis using Building Inventory. Using the created future rainfall data and current data, the runoff in the Wonjucheon basin, Wonju-si, South Korea, by rainfall frequency was calculated through the Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool (S-RAT) model, which was a distributed rainfall-runoff model. The runoff was calculated using 100-year and 200-year frequency rainfalls for a four-hour duration and the flood damage area was calculated by applying the calculated runoff to the Flo-2D model, was developed by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in United State of America, which was a flood inundation model. As a result of calculating the amount of discharge, it was analyzed that the average amount of discharge increased by 16% over the 100-year, 200-year frequency. The calculated result of the flood damage area was analyzed and the analysis results showed that the future flood damage area increased by around 30% at the 100-year frequency and around 15% at the 200-year frequency. The estimated flood damage by rainfall frequency was calculated using the flood damage area by frequency and multi-dimensional analysis, and the analysis result exhibited that the damage increased by around 23% at the 100-year frequency and around 45% at the 200-year frequency.
Highlights
In Korea, there has been much damage due to floods caused by torrential rainfalls of many typhoons such as Rusa in 2002, Maemi in 2003, and Nari in 2007, and frequencies of rainfalls that exceed the design flood frequencies for hydraulic recent years, rainfall intensity has significantly increased due to the changes in the environment and ecosystem caused by climate change and global warming, and flood-prone regions have increased due to the expansion of residential areas and urban parks around rivers caused by the rapid urbanization, resulting in the structures are expected to increase due to climate change
The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of climate change on flood damage, and the Wonjucheon basin was selected as the target basin
To select the runoff data required for the inundation simulation, the data were applied to the Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool (S-RAT) model, which was a distributed rainfall-runoff model, and the runoff was calculated by applying the current and future rainfall data
Summary
Sub-daily rainfall data are needed for risk assessment of hydraulic structures or hydrological modeling, and several studies have been conducted on stationary rainfall frequency analysis and probability precipitation estimation [3,4,5]. Aimed to improve the limitations of previous studies on inundation risk and developed a methodology to implement the multi-dimensional flood damage analysis (MD-FDA). Schreider et al [34] calculated the future flood damage using the climate change scenario data and lumped the rainfall-runoff model at the Hawkesbury region in Australia. Investigated the applicability of the multi-dimensional flood damage calculation method to urban areas considering the detailed information of building type and contents to calculate the damage in the inundated region using the XP-Storm and Wastewater Management.
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