Impact assessment of climate change on energy performance and thermal load of residential buildings in New Zealand

Abstract

While it is evident that climate change will have an impact on the energy demand for heating and cooling in buildings, the exact extent of this impact is not yet fully understood. Quantification of future cooling and heating need in buildings provides a basis for taking appropriate measures for building climate change adaptation. The focus of this study is to examine how future climate change scenarios will impact the heating and cooling of residential buildings across different climatic regions in New Zealand. The future weather data under changing climate were generated for six climatic zones of New Zealand employing the statistical downscaling method. The study used various climate change scenarios, which represent concentration pathways (RCPs), to generate weather data. Specifically, the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios were employed in the building performance simulations for different prototypes of residential buildings. The results showed there would be a significant change in the thermal performance of residential buildings, with a noticeable increase in cooling load and a decrease in heating load. These changes include a maximum thermal load change of 3 kWh/m2 in Auckland by 2090, 2.7 kWh/m2 in Hamilton, 8.3 kWh/m2 in Wellington, 4.2 kWh/m2 in Rotorua, 11 kWh/m2 in Christchurch, and 11.6 kWh/m2 in Queenstown. The warmer climatic zones are expected to change from a heating dominated to a cooling-dominated zone. The results indicated the importance of considering present and future climatic conditions in design and establishing a foundation for actions for the resilience of buildings to climate change.