Impact assessment of climate change on a coastal groundwater system, Central Vietnam

Abstract

Coastal plains in Central Vietnam are characterized by strong seasonal precipitation. As predicted by the A1B gas emission scenario, higher precipitation with more extremes is expected by 2050 for Central Vietnam. To assess impact of these changes on the groundwater resources of the coastal aquifers, a statistical downscaling method with the weather generator LARS-WG coupled with the physically distributed rainfall–runoff model WetSpa and the variable-density groundwater flow model SEAWAT is employed. Results show that contrary to expectation the increase in precipitation by 2050 for the wet months of October and December leads to a sharp decrease in groundwater recharge and groundwater head and consequently a decrease in groundwater resources for the study area. It is concluded that in the assessment of impact of climate change on groundwater resources of coastal sloping plains controlling factors like precipitation intensity in combination with terrain characteristics of the recharge area of aquifers play a major role.