Abstract
ABSTRACT The applicability of a stochastic model was explored to assess the impact of a new independent agency for animal health in England in terms of the cost of animal disease outbreaks. The new agency was proposed to take responsibility for animal disease management in England. The stochastic model estimates the likelihood that the proposed new agency would face animal disease outbreaks of major and minor magnitude; and how many outbreaks of each magnitude, within its first 30 years of operation. Large variability in the potential total cost of the new agency was attributable to the possibility of an outbreak of an unknown major disease, although Bluetongue, Foot and Mouth Disease, and Avian Influenza were also influential. The results show that if the new agency reduces disease costs by even 0.5%, this could benefit society by an estimated £21 million per year. The stochastic approach offers a method for dealing with uncertainties in any continuing deliberations regarding the proposed new agency, resulting in a potential annual gain of £73 million ranging to an annual loss of £144 million.
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