Impact and Equity of New York City's Tobacco Retail Reduction Initiative

Abstract

High levels of tobacco retailer density in communities is associated with a range of tobacco use behaviors and is a key structural driver of tobacco-related disparities. This study evaluates the impacts of New York City's (NYC) novel policy intervention to cap tobacco retail licenses on tobacco retailer density levels and neighborhood inequities in tobacco access. Using geocoded tobacco retail licensing data from 2010 to 2022, Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson panel models estimated the association between policy implementation in 2018 and retailer density per 1,000 population, controlling for neighborhood-level sociodemographic factors. Data were analyzed in 2023. The number of tobacco retail licenses decreased from 9,304 in 2010 to 5,107 in 2022, with the rate of decline significantly accelerating post-policy (-14·2% versus -34·2%). Policy effects were stronger in districts with lower income and greater proportions of non-Hispanic Black residents. NYC's policy substantially reduced tobacco retailer density and appeared to close longstanding patterns of inequity in tobacco access, serving as a rare example of a tobacco control policy that may effectively reduce tobacco-related disparities. This emergent approach to restructure tobacco retail in communities may reach populations that have not benefitted from traditional tobacco control policies and should be considered by other localities.