IMPACT AND ADAPTATION OF SOUTH-EAST ASIAN FARMERS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Abstract

This study finds that South-East Asian farming is sensitive to climate change. Traditional Ricardian studies at the country and regional levels reveal that net revenue is affected by seasonal climate. A structural Ricardian model of growing season choice reveals climate change will reduce net revenues in the near term by 4–8% and in the long term by 10–18%. The implications of this impact on key sustainable development goals such as poverty reduction is likely to be profound. The study finds that farmers who rely on cultivating in three seasons will be especially hard hit by climate change relative to those that rely only on a single season. The results indicate that farmers will switch from 3 seasons to 1 season per year and reduce some of the losses that they would otherwise sustain. An analysis of crop adaptation finds that farmers will also adjust irrigation, crop choice, and the timing of planting in response to climate change. The livestock adaptation study finds that farmers will move towards livestock as climate warms. Farmers will also shift their choice of species away from large animals and move towards small animals. An analysis of perceptions finds that farmers throughout the region are aware that temperature is rising and they generally perceive that precipitation is falling. Half of the farmers interviewed have begun to take measures such as those reported in this study to adapt to climate change. The overall results suggest that acting on their self-interest, the agriculture sector will undertake a great deal of adaptation on its own. However, measures taken by the government such as providing up-to-date weather reports, extension, irrigation and assistance with new varieties can also be effective.