Abstract
Impact analysis is the assessment in terms of monetary loss of any potential threat to the organization. Impact analysis combines the Bayesian decisionprocess withthe Delphi method, as modified herein. A computer can be used to produce a statistical summary useful in fore-casting. This paper will describe impact analysis.First, brief summaries of the Bayesian decision process and the Delphi technique are offered.Then, the method for impact analysis is outlined, followed by a description of a recent application.The application was developed at the Weyer- haeuser Company, Tacoma, ashington. Weyer- haeuser is one of the largest forest products companies in the world. The paper concludes with suggestions for other applications.
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