Abstract
A few weeks prior to the EU referendum (23rd June 2016) two broadly representative samples of the electorate were drawn in Kent (the south‐east of England, N = 1,001) and Scotland (N = 1,088) for online surveys that measured their trust in politicians, concerns about acceptable levels of immigration, threat from immigration, European identification, and voting intention. We tested an aversion amplification hypothesis that the impact of immigration concerns on threat and identification would be amplified when political trust was low. We hypothesized that the effect of aversion amplification on voting intentions would be mediated first by perceived threat from immigration, and then by (dis) identification with Europe. Results in both samples were consistent with this hypothesis and suggest that voters were most likely to reject the political status quo (choose Brexit) when concerns that immigration levels were too high were combined with a low level of trust in politicians.
Highlights
A few weeks prior to the EU referendum (23rd June 2016) two broadly representative samples of the electorate were drawn in Kent and Scotland (N = 1,088) for online surveys that measured their trust in politicians, concerns about acceptable levels of immigration, threat from immigration, European identification, and voting intention
Results in both samples were consistent with this hypothesis and suggest that voters were most likely to reject the political status quo when concerns that immigration levels were too high were combined with a low level of trust in politicians
Regional context In the present research, we examine unique evidence from two separate population samples of 1,000 eligible voters each from Kent and Scotland, to test the immigration and political trust explanations about why people voted to leave
Summary
The immediate consequence was a precipitous drop in the value of the pound, followed by a great deal of confusion and uncertainty as the ruling Conservative Party’s leader David Cameron resigned, and a search for a new leader commenced This historic vote has raised a large number of questions about the state of the United Kingdom, the rise of populism, and the idea of nations and nationhood. One of these is that many sections of the electorate were primarily concerned over apparently unprecedently high uncontrolled levels of immigration (see Ipsos MORI, 2016). A key question for political commentators was how people’s concerns about immigration would be connected to their intention to vote to leave or remain in the EU
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