Immigration Policy and Immigrants' Ages

Abstract

IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES where fertility is below replacement, immigration can provide a substantial guarantee against the prospect of long-run population loss. In Austria in 1985, for example, net immigration of 7,300 persons was sufficient to offset a slight natural decrease and produce a small gain in total population. Deaths outnumbered births by 1 18,000 in the Federal Republic of Germany in 1985, but the country's 83,000 net immigrants were almost enough to prevent population from declining. And the United Kingdom's 50,000 net immigrants accounted for nearly 40 percent of its total population growth in 1985.' In studying how fertility and immigration produce changes in population size and composition, typically we hold constant the age composition of immigrants and examine changes in the annual volume of immigration.2 Demographers have given little regard to how sensitive population might be to variation in immigrants' ages.3 Nor have policymakers paid much attention to the demographic implications of influencing the ages at which immigrants are admitted. It is generally assumed that the distribution of immigrants' ages does not matter much demographically, so that immigrant numbers and not immigrant ages are the proper focus of policy. Now that industrialized countries are beginning to face the possibility of population decline due to low birth rates, and countries like the United States, Australia, and Canada have adopted or are considering procedures to allocate a portion of immigrant visas in part according to age, it is appropriate to examine the demographic impacts of age-targeted immigration policies. We do so, using the United States as our point of reference.