Immigration and the 2006 U.S. Midterm Elections

Abstract

The fears and anxieties associated with illegal immigration would, it was said, rally the Republican base. Just two months ahead of the 2006 midterm elections, there were widely shared expectations that illegal immigration and the prospect of a fence along much of the U.S.-Mexican border would play a pivotal role in determining the outcome. The strategy that had seemingly secured George W. Bush’s second presidential term in November 2004 would, it was felt, again bring the Republicans electoral victory. Instead of reaching out toward independents and middle-ground opinion, there was to be an emphasis on the process of increasing turnout among committed conservatives and core supporters. As Jonathan Weisman noted in the Washington Post, “The way to win in a swing district is not with a campaign aimed at swing voters. Instead, the goal is to motivate conservatives with anti-immigration appeals, hoping they overcome their disenchantment with GOP policies in Washington. … In a way, this strategy borrows from President Bush’s rally-thebase approach to winning reelection in 2004.”1 This chapter surveys Republican campaigning around the immigration issue and assesses its overall impact on the 2006 congressional elections.