Immigration and Ethnicity in National Population Projections

Abstract

A new demographic model for population projections is proposed that incorporates immigration under conditions of fertility and mortality. The model incorporates a foreign-born 1st 2nd 3rd 4th and higher generations and the empirical description of intergenerational births. The next century of population growth rates and their composition for the Asian black Hispanic and white non-Hispanic populations are compared within the total US population. The model projects a population by age sex and 4 generation groups for a period of 5 years using survival rates by 5-year age groups for each sex and generation 5-year age-specific fertility rates for each generation and the number of migrants by age sex and generation during the 5-year period. The models consists of: 1) no international migration; 2) international migration; and 3) population by generations. Black Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islanders white non-Hispanic and American Indian race/ethnic groups are used. The overall total fertility rate of US women hovered around 1.7-1.8 for much of the 1970s and 1980s. The total fertility rate has increased in recent years to about 2.0 in 1990. Ultimate immigration is assumed at a level of about 1.125 million annually including 855000 legal immigrants 200000 net undocumented immigrants and a net gain of 70000 from Puerto Rico and other civilian immigration. With annual net immigration of 950000 the total US population of 249 million in 1990 will top 400 million in 2070 and reach about 432 million in 2090. The white non-Hispanic group will increase from 187 million to a peak of 212 million in 2030 before falling to about 209 million in 2090. Over the next century the black population will increase from 30 million to 54 million. The Hispanic population would increase from 22 million in 1990 to 30 million in 2000 and 108 million a century later. The Asian population will increase from 7 million in 1990 to 60 million in 2090.