Immediate Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Heart and Kidney Transplantation andtheRecovery Trends in 30 Developed andLess-Developed Countries.

Abstract

BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic had multifaceted and disproportionate impacts on various countries. We investigated the decline of heart and kidney transplantation in 2020 and recovery trends in 2020, 2021, and 2022 in 30 developed and developing countries, considering COVID-19 incidence and mortality and pandemic-time economic variables. MATERIAL AND METHODS Data were obtained from reliable open databases. Nations were grouped by hierarchical cluster analysis into high-gross domestic product (GDP), mid-GDP, and low-GDP countries. Expected transplant numbers for 2020 to 2021 were estimated by the artificial neural network method using data from 2015 to 2019. Effect size and its inference were determined through the Hodges-Lemann estimate and Wilcoxon signed-rank test, respectively. The possible disproportionate effect was estimated by the Jonckheere-Tersptra test. Associations between transplantation and economic variables, COVID-19 caseload, and mortality were examined using Kendall rank correlation analysis. RESULTS All nations experienced a decline in 2020 and some real recovery in 2020 to 2022. For high-GDP countries, decline was insignificant and recovery was marginal; for mid-GDP countries, decline was significant for heart and deceased kidneys and recovery was modest; for low-GDP countries, decline was significant for heart, live kidneys, and deceased kidneys and recovery was marginal. The low-GDP countries were disproportionally negatively impacted, although the associations between the impact and economic variables, COVID-19 incidence, and COVID-19 mortality were statistically insignificant. CONCLUSIONS More inclusive studies of socioeconomic and cultural factors that affected the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries can be useful for better preparedness and reducing disruption in healthcare in future global pandemics.