Imagining futures within the constraints of the present. The coproduction of anticipatory knowledge in an energy scenarios platform in Argentina

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this article, we study the coproduction of anticipatory knowledge and its political sensemaking during a set of participatory scenarios-building exercises. Based on interviews with organizers and participants, and analysis of reports produced by an energy scenarios platform in Argentina (the Plataforma Escenarios Energéticos), our investigation shows that the scenarios produced, as well as the calculations and models on which they are based, build anticipatory knowledge that denies contingency and translates the vision of the future of the energy sector of each scenarist into a straight and well-drawn path. Bringing these scenarios together in a single exercise that legitimizes and builds consensus through the participatory process and the use of technical expertise is a way of locking in the future – that is, a way of ensuring that the future can be known and controlled, setting aside other possible futures. In this sense, the objective of the scenario-building exercise is to simplify the complex process of transforming the energy matrix into predictable trajectories, thus convincing investors and the public administration.