Abstract

Geologists struggle to communicate the uncertainty that arise when mapping and interpreting the geological subsurface. Today, open data sharing policies make new value of geological information possible for a broader user group of non-experts. It is crucial to develop standard methods for visualizing uncertainty to increase the usability of geological information. In this study, a web experiment was set up to analyze whether and how different design choices influence the sense of uncertainty. Also, questions about the intuitiveness of symbols were asked. Two-hundred ten participants from different countries completed the experiment, both experts and non-experts in geology. Traditional visualization techniques in geology, like dashed lines, dotted lines and question mark, were tested. In addition, other visualizations were tested, such as hatched area and variations of symbol size, zoom levels and reference information. The results show that design choices have an impact on the participants’ assessment of uncertainty. The experts inquire about crucial information if it is not present. The results also suggest that when visualizing uncertainty, all the elements in the representation, and specifically the line and area symbols that delineate and colour the features, must work together to make the right impression.

Highlights

  • Uncertainty in GeologyHow do users evaluate the quality of representations of the physical world? Tversky and Kahneman (1974) discuss information visualization in general and claim that the assessment of probability “resembles the subjective assessment of physical quantities such as distance and size”

  • One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests were performed to compare the results between these four groups for each question

  • ANOVA tests were performed with expert levels as factor

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Summary

Introduction

Uncertainty in GeologyHow do users evaluate the quality of representations of the physical world? Tversky and Kahneman (1974) discuss information visualization in general and claim that the assessment of probability “resembles the subjective assessment of physical quantities such as distance and size”. Tversky and Kahneman (1974) discuss information visualization in general and claim that the assessment of probability “resembles the subjective assessment of physical quantities such as distance and size” They list a range of factors that must be present for good judgement of representativeness: Knowledge of prior outcomes, sample size, conception of chance, predictability, validity and conception of regression. Especially in 3D, interpretations and interpolations are needed to transform raw data, from for example seismic investigations and bore hole logs into 2D and 3D models. These models present the interpreted reality, which can be effectively used by a wider user group. When these models are made, geologists struggle to model and communicate the uncertainty involved (Randle et al 2018; Pérez-Díaz et al 2020; Schaaf and Bond 2019)

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