Imagined futures in the context of the energy transition: A case study from the Central Highlands Region of Queensland, Australia

Abstract

There is a growing recognition that global efforts to decarbonise energy systems pose significant risks to communities with local economies dominated by fossil fuel industries. Proactive and inclusive energy transition planning, sometimes referred to as a “just transition”, can mitigate some of these risks. However, recent studies in Australia have shown that the polarised discourse produced by the political “climate wars” continues to inhibit conversations about the future in some coal producing regions. This case study explores how social group identity dynamics affect local perceptions of the future in Blackwater, a metallurgical coal mining town in Queensland's Bowen Basin. Analysis of interviews suggest that community members see the local coal mining industry changing but not ending within the next two decades, and as such, conversations about the future of coal are neither highly relevant nor polarised. However, a risk remains that premature conversations about a local energy transition that are led by certain outgroups could reignite limiting “conflict ruts”. This paper draws on insights from social psychology and energy transition literature to outline steps that regional development planning processes can begin to integrate when considering the long-term future of communities with dominant fossil fuel industries. This approach focuses on sustaining local security and identity in place by addressing information asymmetries, building a broader “tent” of trusted actors in regional communities, and expanding the range of possibilities that can be imagined for the community's future.