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Abstract

Background: Due to individualized conditions of lymph node metastasis (LNM) and distant metastasis (DM), the following therapeutic strategy and diagnosis of T1-2 esophageal cancer (ESCA) patients are varied. A prediction model for identifying risk factors for LNM, DM and overall survival (OS) of high-risk T1-2 ESCA patients is of great significance to clinical practice. Methods: A total of 1747 T1-2 ESCA patients screened from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database were retrospectively analyzed for their clinical data. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were established to screen out risk factors for LNM and DM of T1-2 ESCA patients, while those of OS were screened out using the Cox regression analysis. The identified risk factors for LNM, DM and OS were then subjected to the establishment of three nomograms, respectively. The accuracy of the nomograms was evaluated by depicting the calibration curve, and the predictive value and clinical utility were evaluated by depicting the clinical impact curve (CIC) and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively. Results: The age, race, tumor grade, tumor size and T-stage were significant factors for predicting LNM of T1-2 ESCA patients (P<0.05). The age, T-stage, tumor grade and tumor size were significant factors for predicting DM of T1-2 ESCA patients (P<0.05). The age, race, sex, histology, primary tumor site, tumor size, N-stage, M-stage and surgery were significant factors for predicting OS of T1-2 ESCA patients (P<0.05). The C-indexes of the three nomograms constructed by these factors were 0.737, 0.764 and 0.740, respectively, suggesting that they were clinically effective. Conclusions: The newly constructed nomograms can objectively and accurately predict LNM, DM and OS of T1-2 ESCA patients, which contribute to the individualized decision making before clinical management.