Abstract

Brazil recently began granting timber concessions in public forests to promote sustainable forest use. The effectiveness of this strategy hinges on the design and implementation of the concessions themselves as well as their competitive position within the logging sector as a whole. There is, however, a lack of information on the competitive interaction between legal and illegal logging and its effects on concessions profits. We address this knowledge gap by using a spatially explicit simulation model of the Amazon timber industry to examine the potential impact of illegal logging on timber concessions allocation and profits in a 30-year harvest cycle. In a scenario in which illegal logging takes place outside concessions, including private and public “undesignated” lands, concession harvested area would decrease by 59% due to competition with illegal logging. Moreover, 29 out of 39 National Forests (≈74%) would experience a decrease in harvested area. This “leakage” effect could reduce concession net rents by up to USD 1.3 Billion after 30 years. Federal and State “undesignated” lands, if not adequately protected, could have 40% of their total volume illegally harvested in 30 years. Our results reinforce the need to invest in tackling illegal logging, if the government wants the forest concessions program to be successful.

Highlights

  • Brazil has been on a long and difficult journey to legalize and manage its tropical timber sector

  • While many technical and institutional challenges of timber concessions systems are well known [5,6,7], and by and large addressed in the design of concessions in Brazil, the market impacts of illegal timber production on concession success or failure have been neglected

  • We investigate the risk of being illegally exploited that public lands face if not adequately protected

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Summary

Introduction

Brazil has been on a long and difficult journey to legalize and manage its tropical timber sector. A key component of that effort has been the allocation of timber concessions on public lands [1,2,3,4]. While many technical and institutional challenges of timber concessions systems are well known [5,6,7], and by and large addressed in the design of concessions in Brazil, the market impacts of illegal timber production on concession success or failure have been neglected. The economic effects of illegal logging on government finances due to uncollected. Economic impacts of illegal logging in the Amazon and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

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