Il rallentamento della produttività del lavoro e la crescita dell’occupazione. Il ruolo del progresso tecnologico e della flessibilità del lavoro

Abstract

JEL classification codes: E32, J60, E29 In this paper we argue that the deceleration of labor productivity is at the root of the slowdown of the European economic growth over the last fifteen years. Using a simple dynamic model of the labor market, we show that this poor performance can only be accounted for by a combination of two shocks: an adverse technological shock to the labor demand and a positive non technological shock to the labor supply. We are interested in the long run properties of the model, so we use economic theory to study the long run impacts of different shocks to identify the model. Shocks which affect permanently productivity can lead to a transition from one steady state to another. We use a structural VAR to estimate the contri-