IGF-Child-Turcotte-Pugh score as a predictor of treatment outcome in Child-Pugh A, advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing sorafenib therapy.

Abstract

e16660 Background: Sorafenib is the first systemic therapy approved for advanced HCC treatment; with no accurate tool available to help predict survival and treatment outcome and to guide therapy decisions. Our novel blood-based insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF)-Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score comprises levels of IGF-1, bilirubin, INR, and albumin. IGF-CP score significantly improved the prediction of HCC survival in our recently published studies. The current prospective study aimed to compare the overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) of 116 patients with CTP-A HCC treated with sorafenib whose score is reclassified as IGF-A (AA) to that of patients whose score is reclassified as IGF-B/C (AB/AC). Methods: After the approval of the institutional review boards and signing written informed consent, a total of 116 patients with HCC were prospectively enrolled and started on sorafenib and followed until progression or death. We calculated IGF-CTP scores, used Kaplan-Meier method and log rank test to estimate and compare time to event outcomes between subgroups of patients. Results: 116 patients were CTP class A, 87 of the patients with CTP class A were classified as IGF-CTP-A and had median OS of 13.16 ms (95% CI = 12.04 to 22.6 ms), and a median PFS of 5.82 months (ms) (95% CI = 4.34 to 9.14 ms), whereas 29 patients were reclassified as intermediate risk (IGF-CTP-B) and had had a higher risk of death with a shorter OS of 7.6 months (95% CI = 5.23 to 24.47 months) and shorter PFS of 3.49 months (95% CI = 2.53 to 5.26 months). There was higher overall rate of adverse events in the CTP-A patients reclassified as IGF-CTP B than IGF-CTP A especially in grade III-IV adverse events, upper GI Bleeding, lower GI Bleeding, nose bleeding, renal failure, liver failure, encephalopathy, fatigue, weight loss, anorexia, and vomiting. Conclusions: The results of this study support our biologically-driven hypothesis that among HCC patients with CTP-A class treated with sorafenib, those reclassified as IGF-CTP-B/C will have poorer prognosis in terms of shorter OS and PFS. Thus, our study provides an objective non-invasive strategy to better predict the outcome in HCC patients undergoing systemic therapy. Future validation of our IGF-1 score may lead to adopting it as a stratification tool in clinical trials as well as to predict HCC outcome and guide therapy decision in routine practice.