IFRS 도입 이후 경영자 예측치 발표에 따른 재무분석가 예측치 수정 기간의 변화

Abstract

[Purpose] Management forecasts are recognized as more accurate than analysts forecasts under higher information uncertainty. The switch to IFRS is known as an increase in information uncertainty. We aim to find the impact of IFRS on the analyst’s use of management forecasts in revising their earnings forecasts.
 [Methodology] Focusing on the speed to reflect management forecasts into the analysts’ forecast revision, we use OLS regression to investigate the change in time spent in the revision before and after IFRS adoption. Further, we examine the moderating effect of the information amount in management forecast on the days it takes for an analyst to revise the forecast after the IFRS was adopted.
 [Findings] We find that analysts revise their earnings forecasts more quickly in the post－IFRS period than in the pre－IFRS period when the management forecast is announced. This analyst’s rapid response to management forecasts in the post－IFRS period weakened as the gap between the management forecast and the analyst’s most recent forecast is large. Further, as the management forecasts were pessimistic or inaccurate, the analysts need more time to incorporate the information in the forecast revision.
 [Implications] Our findings imply that the adoption of IFRS increases the informative value of management forecasts and that the news and the reliability of management forecast significantly affect the analyst’s use of management forecasts in revision earnings forecasts. In particular, it can be evaluated as using a more sophisticated methodology than prior studies in that financial analysts analyze the time spent revising their own forecasts.