Abstract
Significance The former ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is regaining the politcal ascendancy, with its sights focused on early elections. It wants a caretaker government until then. Its best chance of forming one looks like a deal with the Republican People's Party (CHP), whose top echelons are eager for a spell in government after years in the wilderness. Impacts A second general election later this year, or perhaps next, is more likely than a durable coalition. If there are fresh elections, AKP could regain its overall working majority, though probably only by a narrow margin. Opposition parties' inability to cooperate to form an alternative government means they will have little impact on national policies. President Erdogan will continue ruling as de facto executive president without too much regard for legal or constitutional detail. With no sign of the two-thirds majority needed to change the system, Erdogan's position is over-extended and potentially vulnerable.
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