‘If I don't get blown up ...’: realism in face of terrorism in an Israeli nationwide sample

Abstract

In a nationwide study, we explored how Israelis, currently stricken by an intense wave of terrorism, perceive the risk of being the victim of a terrorist attack. We studied both absolute and comparative (i.e., vis-a-vis other people at the area of residence) perceived controllability and vulnerability. The picture that emerges is one of realism. We found no evidence of the comparative optimistic illusions, which characterizes the risk-perception literature. Most participants report some level of behavior change and precautions against the threat of terrorism, but most of them were doubtful about the effectiveness of these precautionary attempts. Perceived absolute vulnerability was the only risk perception variable related to precautionary behaviors. We discuss the disappearance of comparative optimistic biases when the threat is clearly realistic.