Abstract
ObjectiveTo assess the association between likelihood of success of smoking cessation attempts and time since most recent attempt. MethodsProspective study of 823 smokers who reported a failed quit attempt in the last 12 months at baseline and ≥1 quit attempt over 6-month follow-up. The input variable was time in months between the end (and in an exploratory analysis, the start) of the most recent failed quit attempt reported retrospectively at baseline and start of the first attempt made during the 6-month follow-up period. The outcome variable was success in the latter quit attempt. ResultsSuccess rates for failed quitters who waited <3, 3–6, and 6–12 months between their failed quit attempt ending and making a subsequent quit attempt were 13.8%, 17.5%, and 19.0% respectively. After adjustment for covariates, the odds of cessation relative to those who made a subsequent quit attempt within 3 months were 1.42 (95%CI 0.79–2.55) and 1.52 (95%CI 0.81–2.86) for those who waited 3–6 and 6–12 months respectively before trying again. Bayes factors indicated the data were insensitive. The exploratory analysis showed the odds of cessation were 1.55 (95%CI 0.78–3.08), 1.92 (95%CI 0.94–3.92), and 2.47 (95%CI 1.04–5.83) greater for those with an interval of 3–6, 6–12, and 12–18 months respectively than those who tried again within 3 months. ConclusionsWhile pre-planned analyses were inconclusive, exploratory analysis of retrospective reports of quit attempts and success suggested the likelihood of success of quit attempts may be positively associated with number of months since beginning a prior quit attempt. However, only the longest inter-quit interval examined (12–18 months) was associated with significantly greater odds of quit success relative to a <3 month interval in fully adjusted models; all other comparisons were inconclusive.
Highlights
Tobacco smoking remains one of the leading causes of preventable death worldwide
Using prospective data collected over six months from smokers reporting a recent (≤12 months) failed quit attempt at baseline, we addressed the following research questions: 1. To what extent is the time since the most recent failed quit attempt associated with success in a subsequent quit attempt, after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and characteristics of the quit attempt?
The results showed that a longer interval between quit attempts was associated with a small but non-significant increase in success rates, while Bayes factors indicated that the data were insensitive to distinguish between a small effect or no effect
Summary
Tobacco smoking remains one of the leading causes of preventable death worldwide The majority of smokers want to quit (Office of the Surgeon General (US) and Office on Smoking and Health (US), 2004) and many try to quit each year (Hyland et al, 2006; Ahluwalia et al, 2018), but the chance of success of any given quit attempt is low, with fewer than 5% of unaided attempts succeeding for 12 months or more (Panel TU and DG, 2008). Repeated quit attempts are often needed to become a non-smoker (Getsios et al, 2013; Chaiton et al, 2016). This study assessed whether there was evidence that time since a prior quit attempt within a 12 month
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