IDF curves in nonstationary regions using regional frequency analysis and RCP scenarios in south korea

Abstract

<p>Recently, extreme hydrological phenomena are increasing rapidly due to abnormal climate caused by global warming, and many damages are occurring as the change of precipitation characteristics. The intensity-duration-frequency(IDF) curve is widely applied in practice for designing the hydro-infrastructures. In addition, it is important to predict future changes in rainfall intensity due to climate change.</p><p>For this purpose, this study intends to derive the IDF curve, for future periods. In this study, the RCP scenario, a climate change scenario, was used based on historical data (1975-2020) and future rainfall data (2021-2100). Using these data, the stationary and nonstationary regions in the Korean are classified using regional frequency analysis, and the rainfall quantiles for non-stationary regions was calculated using the GEV(1,0,0) model with time varying location parameter. Finally, IDF curves for the historical and future data were derived and analyzed.</p><div> </div>