IDF curves for future climate scenarios in a locality of the Tapajós Basin, Amazon, Brazil

Abstract

AbstractChanges in the global climate are attributed to the levels of greenhouse gases. Thus, future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways – RCPs) have been developed to explore the impact of different climate policies on the world. The RCPs are essential tools for General Circulation Models (GCMs) to simulate future climate changes. Curves that associate Intensity, Duration and Frequency (IDF) are used in forecasts and are fundamental for the design of hydraulic projects and risk management. The objective of this study was to design IDF curves for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, using data from the HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2 and MIROC5 models. The Equidistance Quantile Matching Method was used to design the IDF curves. The simulated curves presented differences when related to the existing curve. The largest differences were for the MIROC5 (146% in RCP 8.5) and the smallest differences were for the CanESM2 (−20.83% for RCP 8.5). This result demonstrates that the method incorporates changes in future climate variability. The spatial resolutions of each model influenced their IDF curves, which led the CanESM2 curves to not present satisfactory results that are different from the MIROC5 curves, which were the ones that best represented the possible future differences.