Ideological Change in Competitive Labor Parties

Abstract

This research tests the Downsian explanation of ideological change in competitive political parties on a sample of twelve labor parties examined at various points over their lifetimes. Ideological change is defined in terms of changes on three economic issue dimensions. The analysis first tests a series of hypotheses of bivariate association, hypotheses drawn from Anthony Downs's work, before utilizing multiple regression analysis to determine the best predictors of ideological change. The results tend to confirm Downsian theory, showing a party's competitive trend and party system size to be the major determinants of labor party ideological change. A party's competitive trend is found to be the primary determinant of ideological change, with growing parties tending toward leftism or rigidity, and stagnating parties tending toward centrism. Changes in the number of minor parties in a party system is the second most important factor, with increases in the number of minor parties encouraging leftist tendencies and decreases encouraging centrist tendencies. Finally, the number of major parties in a system also influences ideological change, with greater numbers of parties encouraging more leftism.