Identities of Competitive States in U.S. Presidential Elections: Electoral College Bias or Candidate-Centered Politics?

Abstract

When discussing the biases of the U.S. Electoral College, researchers conclude that competitive states seem to occur randomly without any explanation. This study examines the consistency with which the same states have been competitive in presidential elections from 1824 to 2000. It also identifies “spectator” states. Spectator states are those that have not been competitive for ten presidential elections in a row. A statistical analysis illustrates that the identities of competitive states have become more unpredictable. In addition, few states have been spectators for long periods. In terms of representation, the facts that competitive states are not consistent and that there are few spectators mean different states are in the presidential spotlight at different times. As opposed to any biases associated with the Electoral College, the changes in consistency coincide with the rise of candidate-centered politics and decreasing voter loyalty to parties. The highly changeable nature of competitive states strengthens the federalism argument for continuation of the Electoral College. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.