Abstract
This study aimed to define the psychological markers for future development of depression symptoms following the lockdown caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. Based on previous studies, we focused on loneliness, intolerance of uncertainty and emotion estimation biases as potential predictors of elevated depression levels. During the general lockdown in April 2020, 551 participants reported their psychological health by means of various online questionnaires and an implicit task. Out of these participants, 129 took part in a second phase in June 2020. Subjective loneliness during the lockdown rather than objective isolation was the strongest predictor of symptoms of depression 5 weeks later. Younger age and health related worry also predicted higher non-clinical levels of depression and emotional distress. The results support the diathesis-stress model, which posits that a combination of preexisting vulnerabilities along with stressors such as negative life events are among the factors affecting the development of psychopathology. Moreover, our results correspond with those of previous studies conducted worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. Taken together, these findings call for focusing on psychological factors, especially among younger people, to identify individuals at risk for future development of depression and to promote new strategies for prevention.
Highlights
In January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern
The pandemic had an impact on various psychopathologies, and previous evidence highlighted the risk of future development of depressive symptoms (Torales et al, 2020)
In the current study we explored the influence of subjective loneliness, intolerance of uncertainty (IU) and biased emotional evaluation as well as lockdown-related stress and demographic factors on the non-clinical levels of depressive symptoms during and following the COVID-19 lockdown
Summary
In January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern. No effective or available vaccine had been found, leading the WHO emergency committee to declare that the spread of the coronavirus pandemic could be diminished only by early detection, prompt treatment, and isolation (Sohrabi et al, 2020). Social frameworks and religious institutions were closed for over a month and many restrictions were placed on travel and social gatherings. This new reality caused social isolation on a massive scale that had never been seen in the 21st century. While the general lockdown was Predicting Depression Following COVID-19 Lockdown effective in terms of preventing infection, the short-term and long-term psychological impact of this isolation remains unclear and has yet to be dealt with
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