Identifying the potential development of HAZUS model as an earthquake disaster loss model for school buildings in Indonesia

Abstract

Located in a complex tectonic zone, Indonesia is prone to earthquakes, which cause considerable damages to houses and buildings and lead to significant economic losses. One of the most significant damages to public facilities is the destruction of school buildings. In addition to hazard factor, poor building structure in most of Indonesia’s school buildings have contributed to increased earthquake disaster losses as a vulnerability component. To reduce disaster losses, quantifying earthquake disaster losses was conducted as an initial process. In practice, Indonesian government and Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) calculate disaster losses at the time of post-disaster using various methods. Such calculation method is generally time-consuming, which may impeded the disaster response process. Thus, pre-disaster disaster losses quantification method could be a solution to this problem, which have not been developed and widely applied in Indonesia. HAZUS model is used for estimating earthquake disaster losses in the pre-disaster phase and has been widely used based on the building performance developed by FEMA, USA. This study aims to identify the potential for developing the HAZUS model as a tool for estimating disaster losses in school buildings in Indonesia. The identification was conducted in four stages. The analysis of HAZUS models consisted of hazard analysis, capacity analysis, damage analysis, and losses analysis. A case study was conducted on disaster losses potential mapping in Cicendo District, Bandung City, Indonesia. On the hazard analysis, hazard data were applied on the basis of the Indonesian earthquake hazard and 2017 source map and building code of SNI 1726:2019 as response spectrum procedure. In the analysis of the building capacity, potential development was identified based on capacity building parameters (Ay, Dy, Au, Du) specific to the typical school building in Indonesia with a survey approach and analysis of existing buildings. Concrete Frame with infill masonry shear walls (C3) and Reinforced Masonry Wall with flexible diaphragms (RM1) were identified as the types of structures, which were close to the typical school buildings in Indonesia. The difference of local structure characteristics was identified as the potential to develop fragility curves of local structure on the damage analysis. In the losses analysis, four components of economic loss were applied, consisting of building replacement and repairment of losses, income losses, and building relocation losses. The potential and challenges lie in the use of limited taxonomic data on buildings and school administration data, as well as in the historical data approach to the costs and duration of school building repairs.